A Little more than a year ago, I held forth on the subject of the just-announced iPad. If you can be bothered, the post is here. Now, a day after Saint Steve announced its successor, it seems a good time to take stock and see just how wrong I was in my predictions.
First of all, I can’t get away from the fact that I was sceptical about the whole thing. It turns out that about 15 million people have disagreed with me so far. That number’s going to be wildly outstripped by the new one.
What I did last January was to fall into my own trap. I even said it in the post. The trap is assuming that inferior hardware will produce an inferior experience. Apple aren’t hardware innovators and they never have been. They didn’t invent the MP3 player, the mobile phone or the all-in-one PC. They didn’t invent tablets. They didn’t invent their vaunted processor, either – it’s an amalgamation of ARM parts slapped together by Samsung.
(I’m being rather blasé about that last point, of course. Apple will have had huge input on the design of the SoC, but in referencing its ARM heritage, I can point out with pride that ARM are the last vestige of Acorn computer, of which we Brits should be proud*).
Anyway, Apple don’t innovate. What they do, and with blinding brilliance, is to take an existing concept, pare it down to its bare necessities, ally it with wonderful ergonomics both in terms of hardware and software, and then slap a mammoth price tag on it.
This strategy works because a) their products are generally a joy to touch and use and b) the high price puts them in the realm of the status symbol.
Where they have fallen down in the past is with their ‘walled garden’ approach to content – the rejection policy of the app store, the Adobe Flash nonsense, and so on. It’s this and, ironically, the status symbol tag that has seen them apparently shudder a a little in the mobile phone arena, with Android now becoming the dominant smartphone OS on the planet. In fact, that fight has never been between Apple and Android, but Android and Windows Mobile, Symbian and RIM. And Android won it easily. It’s done it by providing a similarly intuitive interface to Apple, adding some extras (like Flash, open content and the ability to use the phone as a Wi-Fi hotspot, something I was highly amused to hear Jobs drop in to the presentation last night as a new feature of the iPhone 4, as if it was his latest great idea). Crucially, Android also gave manufacturers the ability to release phones across the spectrum of budgets. The superior usability (that’s a word we’ll be coming back to) of Android simply beat the competition into submission.
Nokia’s announcement that they’re jumping in to bed with Microsoft was the death knell of the Symbian OS, something I’m terribly sad about due to its roots in the old Psion organisers (which also ran on ARM…). Windows phone 7, or whatever it’s called, has had a pretty lukewarm reception and I can’t see the coming of Nokia heralding much in the way of a recovery. They’ve lost too much ground, and Microsoft just don’t seem to get it.
RIM, on the other hand, will be around for a while, I suspect, due to their limpet-like hold of the enterprise market. Their products, and I’m including the BES back-end here, are more than solid enough to hold that space for the foreseeable future.
I digress. Android has done what I though it would and become the dominant smartphone OS. What it will never do, unless someone like, uh, Nokia starts making handsets running it, is have a viable competitor to the iPhone. Apple’s baby simply has too much cachet. Their users are all rabid fanbois too, almost to a man (or woman), and with pretty good reason. The product is amazing. Unless you want to do something way off the curve with it you probably can. If I’m to be entirely honest, the new addition of the WiFi hotspot has even intrigued me… But I’m more than happy with my HTC Desire, and I had a WiFi hotspot on my old G1 about 18 months ago.
Anyway, back to the point, and to the title of this post. A great many analysts have taken one look at the new iPad and deemed it unworthy. The hardware’s barely adequate competition for the incoming Android, RIM and WebOS hoard, they say. It will be eaten alive when they get going. But they’re falling into my trap. And, worse, they’re not taking account of history.
Apple may have lost ground to Android-powered phones in terms of market share, but I doubt very much that many people seriously considering an iPhone would have looked at something like the Samsung Galaxy and thought, “Oh, that’s just as good, I’ll have that!” I’d be very surprised if the Android revolution has dented Apple’s phone sales all that much.
But let’s take stock of why they’ve been so successful;
- Functionality. As I sad before, the interface is very iOS-like, smooth and intuitive(ish)
- Price. Pretty much every Android handset I’ve seen is substantially cheaper than an iPhone, especially when the contract pricing and data plans are taken into account.
- Content. They can do some things the iPhone can’t.
Of these, I’m pretty sure that price is the ultimate differentiator, followed closely by what you can do with the things. Their usability.
Now let’s apply this rationale to the Tablet market. I know I said that Apple didn’t invent the tablet. They didn’t. But they did create the first really usable one and in doing so they ‘invented’ the market.
Their market share is unbelievable. When they launched, $499 looked pretty expensive (to me, at least) for a low-capacity device that was essentially a larger iPod touch. Now, however, having seen how their so-called competitors have priced their own efforts, it looks like a steal. And the new one’s the same price.
What Apple have done here is almost to reverse their default strategy. They have, it seems, adopted a ‘pile-em-high-and-sell-em-cheap’ method, and it’s worked. They own the market. To the average Joe or Joanne on the street, any tablet is an iPad. They’ve created the new Hoover, or indeed the new iPod.
Incidentally, that’s the history I was referring to. The only other time Apple ‘created’ a market was with the iPod. Of course there were MP3 players available when the iPod came along, but they certainly weren’t mainstream. Apple rolled up and defined the sector overnight. According to the latest figures I could find, they still have something approaching 75% percent of it in the US. That’s despite the likes of Creative, Sony and Microsoft pumping heaven knows how many millions into R&D.
Back to their tablet: Joe or Jo don’t give a fig whether it’s got an eight megapixel camera, an SD card slot or more memory than a nuclear power plant. They care about what they can do with it. What you can do with an iPad is, frankly, a lot. Many of the apps on show may prove to be gimmicks, but the point is that they all work. They’re seamless. They behave as an end user would expect them to behave, won’t crash and won’t leave you scratching your head or punting the thing through a window. The Apple ‘ecosystem’ (how I hate that word) is all built to work together too. The AirPlay feature, for example, means you can stream pretty much anything from the iPad to the Apple TV (not-so-curiously Apple’s only other notably cheap device).
Of course, there are things you can’t do on it, for example ‘proper’ writing, as many authors will attest, but that will surely come when Apple (or Scrivener) figure out how to do it properly. I can’t see Android or RIM overcoming that particular hurdle first, either.
Here’s the big thing, the thing that most analysts seem to be missing. Apple has moved the goalposts. The incoming crop of competing tablets were only just on a par with the iPad. Yes, they have more raw power and hardware features, but they’re bigger, heavier, don’t last as long and, crucially, they’re more expensive and nowhere near as usable. It’s the polar opposite of the mobile phone equation, but Motorola, Samsung and HP just don’t have the chops to move in to the “high-end” of the tablet space in the same way that Apple did in the phone market. The only way I can see them achieving any decent market share is to undercut Apple on price and with production costs being what they are on new lines, plus the fact that Apple have knocked £100 off the iPad 1 (and if they continue production of that device, even the Chinese need to watch out!) I don’t believe they can.
Heaping more misery on them, they can’t do anything that the iPad can’t, and there’s plenty that Apple’s tablet can do that they’re at least two generations away from. WebOS is the only viable contender I’ve seen in terms of “Continuous Client”-type technology, but it’s vapourware at the moment – the public will have had iPad 2′s in its grubby mitts for almost six months when the TouchPad arrives. Android, while blessed with Google apps that work really well on a phone, doesn’t seem to have anything to differentiate itself in the tablet space.
So, much as I dislike monopolies and closed-source where technology is concerned, and much as I cringed at Saint Steve’s crowing and hyperbole, I really can’t imagine – aside from über-geeks and Apple-haters – who is going to buy a heavier, more expensive device that doesn’t last as long or work as well. I know I’m not.
Here it is, then, prediction time. I’m going to say that, while their market share may dive a little – say to 80-85% through 2011, their sales volumes will remain through the roof, and that the loss in market share will be down to cheap Chinese kit at least as much as it is to ‘legitimate’ competitors like RIM and HTC. I think Apple are more than safe for another twelve months.
By which time the iPad 3 will be out…
*And, to be fair, the creation of the company, back in 1990, did come from a collaboration between Acorn and Apple, so they have done a bit of innovating…